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Avik Roy: CBO: 11 Million Uninsured Americans Will Be Subject to Obamacare’s Individual Mandate ‘Penalty Tax’ September 20, 2012

Today, the Congressional Budget Office announced the results of anew analysis of the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate, the law’s provision that forces Americans to buy health insurance or face a fine. According to CBO, 11-12 million uninsured Americans will be subject to the mandate; the agency expects more than half of them to pay the fine instead of buying insurance. But there’s something that the CBO didn’t say: as more people pay the “tax penalty” instead of buying insurance, premiums for everyone else will go up, potentially triggering a death spiral in the private insurance market.

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