Everyone is wondering what is going to happen on Medicare. No one can know the answer at this point, but several things are clear: The August blackout also has pushed energy issues to the top of the congressional docket. In addition, the growing danger in Iraq, the California recall election, and the Democratic presidential race are competing for the nation’s attention. This could mean that the imperative to pass a major Medicare bill also is waning. That’s not to say that the policy issues aren’t tremendously important. They are. But negotiations over fallbacks, premium support, prescription drug importation, and rural issues aren’t the only considerations. There is a huge opportunity here to make progress on modernizing this outdated program, which many members oppose, but the price will be a drug benefit, which other members don’t like. Harvard Professor Bob Blendon observes that “Congress is between a rock and a hard place. Seniors will be critical of Congress if it does not pass a prescription drug bill, but unhappy if it passes either of the current bills.” On overall Medicare reform, the public is not pumped up in demanding structural changes because the average person doesn’t see much wrong with the program today. The train wreck is in the future. As a result, Sen. Kennedy can be expected to continue to hold his ground against reform. At the same time, it’s hard to see Ways and Means Chairman Thomas giving in on his visionary goal of making Medicare a modern and competitive program, shared with Energy Chairman Tauzin and others. But they will need to settle on where they can find a respectable amount of bipartisan agreement. This could mean that the 108th Congress makes a down payment on a Medicare bill, with more to come. Grace-Marie Turner
Many other scenarios are possible, of course, so if anybody finds the crystal ball, please give me a call.
Seeking a Crystal Ball
Everyone is wondering what is going to happen on Medicare. No one can know the answer at this point, but several things are clear: The August blackout also has pushed energy issues to the top of the congressional docket. In addition, the growing danger in Iraq, the California recall election, and the Democratic presidential race are competing for the nation’s attention. This could mean that the imperative to pass a major Medicare bill also is waning. That’s not to say that the policy issues aren’t tremendously important. They are. But negotiations over fallbacks, premium support, prescription drug importation, and rural issues aren’t the only considerations. There is a huge opportunity here to make progress on modernizing this outdated program, which many members oppose, but the price will be a drug benefit, which other members don’t like. Harvard Professor Bob Blendon observes that “Congress is between a rock and a hard place. Seniors will be critical of Congress if it does not pass a prescription drug bill, but unhappy if it passes either of the current bills.” On overall Medicare reform, the public is not pumped up in demanding structural changes because the average person doesn’t see much wrong with the program today. The train wreck is in the future. As a result, Sen. Kennedy can be expected to continue to hold his ground against reform. At the same time, it’s hard to see Ways and Means Chairman Thomas giving in on his visionary goal of making Medicare a modern and competitive program, shared with Energy Chairman Tauzin and others. But they will need to settle on where they can find a respectable amount of bipartisan agreement. This could mean that the 108th Congress makes a down payment on a Medicare bill, with more to come. Grace-Marie Turner
Many other scenarios are possible, of course, so if anybody finds the crystal ball, please give me a call.