Impact Of A King v Burwell Win: The REST Of The Story

ObamaCare supporters have produced study after study warning of the devastation to come if the Supreme Court decides that the IRS illegally extended health insurance subsidies to people in states operating under federal exchanges.

But the American Action Forum (AAF), a dynamic think tank led by former CBO director Douglas Holtz-Eakin, has produced new research that provides balance to what has been a one-sided debate. He shows how people in 37 states will be helped if the petitioners prevail in King v Burwell.

AAF estimates that more than 11 million people would be liberated from having to purchase expensive ObamaCare insurance and freed from the onerous penalties of the individual mandate, which cost those who don’t comply an average of $1,200 in fines this year. The study also finds that workers could earn nearly $1,000 more, and 1.2 million more people would join the workforce in federal exchange states if King prevails in the lawsuit.

The employer mandate would be void in these states because employers no longer could be penalized if their workers went to the exchanges for insurance. No exchange subsidies equals no employer mandate penalties. AAF estimates that 262,000 businesses would be liberated from the employer mandate. This, in turn, would:

  • Permit the creation of up to 237,000 new jobs
  • Bring 1,270,000 people into the labor force
  • Increase pay by up to $940 per worker and up to $13.6 billion overall
  • Offer the opportunity for more hours to up to 3.3 million part-time workers.

On the individual side, AAF estimates that if the court rules for King, the flow of subsidies will stop for about 7.7 million individuals, each losing an average of $3,156 a year. In the absence of the subsidies, ObamaCare’s expensive, mandate-laden insurance would become “unaffordable” for many, earning them an automatic exemption from the individual mandate.

Continued reading at: Forbes


About the author

Grace-Marie Turner is president of the Galen Institute, a public policy research organization that she founded in 1995 to promote an informed debate over free-market ideas for health reform. Full biography