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RAND Corporation: The Effect of the Affordable Care Act on Enrollment and Premiums, With and Without the Individual Mandate February 16, 2012

This study from the RAND Corporation finds that the elimination of the individual mandate leads to a 12.5-million–person reduction in the number of newly insured individuals and increases government spending per newly insured individual by a factor of more than two. While we ind that average exchange premiums increase by approximately 9.3 percent when the individual mandate is eliminated, this inding is mostly driven by compositional efects. he increase in premiums that would be faced by any given individual is only 2.4 percent. Given the high uncertainty about the likely efects of the ACA, estimates from a variety of models are useful for gauging the likely implications of policy changes.

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